Global Fertility Decline Threatens Social Systems

The New York Sun reports that global fertility rates are declining at alarming levels, threatening the foundations of social and financial systems across the Americas and the world. Currently, more than half of all countries report fertility rates below the approximately 2.1 children per woman needed for a stable population without significant immigration.

Ronald Lee, a professor emeritus of demography at the University of California, Berkeley, emphasizes that the core danger lies not in slower economic growth, but in the strain on social systems that rely on intergenerational resource transfers.

The International Monetary Fund notes that global fertility rates have been declining for decades, with a current average of about 2.2 births per woman, down from approximately 4.7 in 1960. Advanced economies often see rates below 1.5.

This demographic shift is considered a Great Inversion, and its implications include fewer workers supporting aging societies, escalating healthcare and retirement costs, and potential national contraction in economic and global influence.

Klaus Prettner, a professor of macroeconomics and digitalization at the Vienna University of Economics and Business, warns about labor shortages and the resulting strain on public finance programs in the U.S.

The American Enterprise Institute describes declining fertility as an existential challenge for advanced societies, with fewer workers leading to difficult choices about taxation and public spending. Governments are exploring solutions such as automation, immigration, and pro-natal policies, though results have been modest.

Wolfgang Lutz, leader of the World Population Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, states that there is no clear evidence of sustained success from pro-natal policies, with France being a rare exception due to its long-standing family-friendly policies.

The shift in demographics reflects deeper societal changes, with people marrying later and desiring smaller families. While some view lower fertility as beneficial for the environment, the consensus acknowledges the challenges in sustaining living standards and innovating in aging societies.

The United Nations projects significant population growth in Africa, contrasting with stagnation in Europe, East Asia, and North America, reshaping expectations for global growth and geopolitical influence.

The ongoing decline in fertility poses a critical risk that could affect national resilience and social contracts for generations.