Predictions for Quantum Technology Advancements by 2026
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2025 has been a year of significant progress in quantum technology, with advancements in hardware, software, and ecosystems. Predictions for 2026 include the announcement from DARPA regarding companies advancing to Stage C of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative.
The EU plans to launch its Quantum Grand Challenge, introducing a selection of quantum vendors, while the UK government aims to enhance its investment in quantum technology. Market consolidation is expected as companies seek to address fragmentation and funding inefficiencies, with potential acquisitions like IonQ's purchase of Oxford Ionics and Google AI's interest in Atlantic Quantum.
Raising private funds will become increasingly challenging, leading to a second wave of quantum technologies with new focus areas. Quantum processors are anticipated to show an increase in physical qubits, though applications may disappoint as logical qubits struggle to achieve meaningful error rates.
The on-premise adoption of quantum processors will rise due to data security concerns and a desire for faster job turnaround, despite the advantages of co-locating quantum machines within high-performance computing data centers.
Research into error correction will intensify, with new practical schemes and multi-layer code developments emerging as key focus areas. The application of gate-based processors is expected to yield modest production-grade applications benefiting from error suppression techniques, while the focus will shift towards speed metrics, particularly error correction cycle time.
AI and quantum technologies will increasingly converge, paving the way for integration in Software Development Kits. Additionally, advancements in quantum sensors, including secure messaging in space and deployable quantum clocks, will be showcased.
The importance of post-quantum cryptography will grow as enterprises prepare for potential threats from fault-tolerant quantum computers. Overall, 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the quantum technology landscape, with numerous developments expected across various sectors.