NFL Week 14 Preview: Chiefs vs. Texans Showdown

The Kansas City Chiefs are set to host the Houston Texans in a pivotal Week 14 matchup at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, December 7, 2025, with kickoff scheduled for 8:20 PM EST. This game features a compelling quarterback duel between Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs and C.J.

Stroud of the Texans. As of now, the Chiefs are favored with a spread of minus three point five and a moneyline of minus one hundred seventy-five, while the Texans enter as underdogs with a spread of plus three point five and a moneyline of plus one hundred fifty-two.

The total points over/under is set at forty-one point five, indicating a potentially low-scoring game. Expert analysis from Dimers, which is based on ten thousand simulations, gives the Chiefs a sixty-three percent chance of winning, projecting a final score of twenty-three to nineteen.

However, the model suggests that both teams have a fifty percent chance of covering the spread, indicating a competitive matchup. The best bet identified by experts from Dimers is to take the Over on forty-one point five points, given that the simulations indicate a fifty-six percent likelihood of hitting the over.

Player projections reveal that Mahomes is expected to throw for two hundred forty-five yards, while Stroud is projected for two hundred forty-one yards. In terms of scoring potential, Kareem Hunt and Woody Marks are seen as the primary touchdown threats for their respective teams.

For the Texans, Marks has a ten percent probability of being the first touchdown scorer, while Nico Collins has an eight point three percent chance. On the Chiefs' side, Hunt leads with an eleven point four percent chance of scoring first.

Both teams will be looking to solidify their playoff positions, making this a crucial game in the late NFL season. Fans and bettors are encouraged to stay updated on the latest odds and player prop bets as the game approaches.

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