Axial Seamount Eruption Timeline Extended to 2026

An underwater volcano off the Oregon coast, Axial Seamount, is now projected to erupt by mid-to-late 2026, according to recent updates from scientists. Initially, the eruption was forecasted for within a year, but data indicates a delay.

Axial Seamount, located on the Juan de Fuca Ridge, is the most active submarine volcano in the Northeast Pacific, with previous eruptions recorded in 1998, 2011, and 2015. Bill Chadwick, a research associate at Oregon State University, stated that after successfully predicting the 2015 eruption, scientists have been working to forecast the next event.

Eruptions at Axial are typically preceded by high seismic activity and ground inflation caused by magma accumulation. Following the 2015 eruption, inflation began to build again, but rates declined through 2023, reaching nearly zero by summer.

However, in fall 2023, inflation and seismicity increased, signaling a potential change in the magma supply. By late 2024, Axial was close to the inflation level that preceded the last eruption, but by late April 2025, inflation rates had slowed once again.

Chadwick updated the Axial Blog in October 2025, noting that reaching the inflation threshold necessary for an eruption might take longer than initially expected. Current inflation levels show a rise of four inches above pre-2015 eruption levels.

Chadwick indicated that the volcano may require an additional eight inches of inflation before the next eruption can occur. He explained that the inflation thresholds tend to rise slightly with each eruption, as magma rising to the surface compresses surrounding crust, complicating future eruptions.

However, Chadwick reassured that inflation rates and thresholds are unlikely to increase indefinitely, due to the compressive stress released by the spreading Juan de Fuca Ridge. Predicting eruption timing remains challenging, with efforts based on pattern recognition and speculation.

Chadwick is also developing a physics-based model to enhance prediction accuracy, using data from past eruptions. This model will analyze real-time data from Axial Seamount to forecast its next eruption, though results will only be confirmed post-eruption.

The ongoing monitoring of Axial Seamount provides valuable insights into volcanic activity and its impacts on marine ecosystems, underscoring the importance of research in understanding oceanography and marine biology.