China's Biotech Industry Faces Patent Cliff Challenges

If pharmaceutical drug patents are an hourglass turned over on the day of approval with the approaching loss of exclusivity known in the industry as the patent cliff, then Big Pharma is currently watching the final grains of sand slipping through the neck of the glass.

At the bottom of the hourglass awaits an unforgiving world of generic and biosimilar competition. Between 2025 and 2030, the patent cliff is set to be one of the biggest since 2010 by revenue at risk, according to analysts.

Morgan Stanley estimates US$171 billion of 2025 revenue at large-cap biopharma companies will go off-patent by the end of 2030, forcing the industry into a race to replace ageing blockbusters. The patent cliff is not the only headwind, as US drug makers are also contending with a tougher political environment due to the Biosecure Act, which is awaiting final passage in the US Senate and US President Donald Trump's signature to become law.

The act adds uncertainty to an industry that is simultaneously trying to refill pipelines at speed. These shifts are approaching like icebergs shearing off a glacier: slowly at first, then all at once.

The implications for the biotech industry in China could be significant, affecting innovation and competition within the sector and highlighting the need for strategic adaptations by companies.