Sea-Level Rise Accelerates in New Jersey, Threatening Coastal Areas

New Jersey could see between 2.2 and 3.8 feet of sea-level rise by 2100 if current global carbon emissions continue, according to the New Jersey Climate Change Resource Center at Rutgers University. The rise could reach as much as 4.5 feet if ice-sheet melt accelerates.

This information comes from a comprehensive 155-page report by the center's Science and Technical Advisory Panel, which involved input from 144 scientists. The findings highlight the increasing flood hazards along New Jersey's coast and in communities near tidal rivers, marshes, and wetlands.

The report, commissioned by the state's Department of Environmental Protection, emphasizes that these sea-level rise projections depend heavily on future global emissions scenarios. Robert Kopp, a Rutgers climate scientist, noted that the current emissions trajectory aligns with an intermediate scenario that could lead to a sea-level rise of 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

The previous report in 2019 had projected a lower rise of about 2 feet. The report also reveals that sea levels at Atlantic City rose approximately 1.5 feet from 1912 to 2021, which is about three times faster than the global average rate.

Recent data shows that between 2005 and 2020, tide gauges recorded a rise of about 4 inches. The frequency of flooding events is set to dramatically increase, with Atlantic City potentially experiencing between 29 and 148 flood days per year by 2050.

If polar ice sheet melt accelerates, this number could rise to 178 days. By the end of the century, it is likely that coastal flood days will exceed 131 per year. The report also warns about compound flooding, where rising seas combine with storm surges and heavy rains, worsening flood impacts.

As coastal erosion worsens, efforts to combat it may be overwhelmed. Wetlands that traditionally protect coastlines may struggle to adapt to these rising sea levels. Additionally, there are concerns about increasing salination of groundwater and surface water, particularly affecting New Jersey's barrier islands.

The report urges policymakers to review its estimates at least every five years, but it refrains from making specific policy recommendations, leaving those decisions to local leaders and communities. The report's rigorous projections come with the caveat that climate science is inherently unpredictable, and future conditions may alter current expectations.