Glaciers Face Accelerated Extinction Rates by 2031

Glaciers in the European Alps are projected to reach their peak rate of extinction in just eight years, with over 100 glaciers expected to melt away permanently by 2033. In the western United States and Canada, peak losses are forecast to occur less than a decade later, with more than 800 glaciers disappearing annually.

This alarming trend, driven by human-induced climate change, represents one of the clearest indicators of the climate crisis, as approximately 200,000 glaciers remain worldwide, with 750 vanishing each year.

If current carbon emissions continue, glacier losses could peak at about 3,000 annually by 2040 and plateau until 2060. By the end of this century, it is estimated that 80% of today's glaciers will have disappeared.

Conversely, if rapid cuts to carbon emissions limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, annual losses could be capped at about 2,000 by 2040, after which the rate would decline. These glaciers are not just important for their volume of ice, which contributes to sea-level rise, but also serve as crucial water sources, tourist attractions, and hold significant cultural and spiritual meaning for many communities.

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, analyzed over 200,000 glaciers using satellite images and highlighted that regions with smaller, faster-melting glaciers are particularly vulnerable. For example, 3,200 glaciers in Central Europe could shrink by 87% by 2100 under a 1.5 degree scenario, escalating to 97% under 2.7 degrees.

The melting glaciers in the western US and Canada, including Alaska, may see 70% of their current glaciers vanish under a 1.5 degree rise and over 90% under 2.7 degrees. As glaciologist Matthias Huss noted, the loss of these glaciers represents not just a numerical milestone, but a profound shift affecting ecosystems, water resources, and cultural heritage globally.

This situation necessitates urgent action to help communities adapt, as approximately two billion people depend on mountain water for their livelihoods and food security. Adaptation strategies could include new farming methods, alternative tourism initiatives, and even artificial glaciers, as seen in Kyrgyzstan.

Dr. Arun Bhakta Shrestha emphasized that today's climate decisions will significantly influence the future of these vital natural features.