China's CO2 Emissions Stabilize as Goals Shift

China's carbon dioxide emissions have stabilized or even begun to fall over the past 18 months, according to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. This finding suggests that the world's largest polluter may be on track to achieve its goal of peak CO2 emissions ahead of its 2030 deadline.

A significant driver behind this stabilization is the rapid growth in renewable energy sources; solar power generation increased by 46% and wind power by 11% in the third quarter of this year. China added 240 gigawatts of solar capacity and 61 gigawatts of wind power in just the first nine months of 2025.

Last year, the country installed 333 gigawatts of solar power, which surpassed the total installed by the rest of the world combined. This analysis was presented to the climate policy platform Carbon Brief and highlighted that China’s energy sector emissions remained flat despite increasing electricity demand.

Additionally, emissions from travel, cement, and steel industries have also seen declines. As global leaders convene in Brazil for COP30, the urgency of addressing climate change is underscored by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who has warned that failure to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius equates to moral failure.

Brazilian diplomat Andre Correa do Lago commended China for its advancements in green technologies, stating that solutions emerging from China benefit a global audience. However, while some sectors are exhibiting positive trends, others are not, with emissions in the production of plastics and chemicals rising by 10%, despite a 5% drop in oil demand and emissions from the transport sector.

Experts caution that, while China is set to meet its peak emissions target early, it may miss its target for reducing carbon intensity by 2025. The recent climate targets released by China aim for a reduction of overall greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% by 2035, which some experts believe is too modest to effectively mitigate global warming.

Li Shuo from the Asia Society Policy Institute emphasized that the latest targets should be viewed as a baseline rather than a ceiling. The upcoming 15th five-year plan, expected to outline priorities for the 2026-2030 period, will likely focus on low-carbon energy systems, although no details are available until next year.

Overall, while there are encouraging signs from China regarding emissions stabilization, significant challenges remain in meeting long-term climate goals.