Geopolitical Tensions Rise: Mexico Water Dispute and Tariff Threats

Donald Trump has threatened to impose an additional 5% tariff on Mexico if it does not immediately provide additional water to help US farmers, accusing the country of violating a treaty that outlines water-sharing between the neighbors.

Under the treaty, which dates back to 1944, Mexico must send 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the US from the Rio Grande every five years. The agreement also stipulates that the United States must annually allocate 1.5 million acre-feet of water from the Colorado River to Mexico.

Trump claimed that Mexico owes the US 800,000 acre-feet of water due to violations of the treaty over the past five years and demanded that Mexico release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st.

The lack of water is reportedly harming crops and livestock in Texas. In April, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated that Mexico had agreed to increase its water shipments to Texas to help rectify a shortfall under the 1944 treaty.

Mexico, however, has argued that it is experiencing drought conditions that have strained its water resources. A recent World Wildlife Study indicated that 52% of the water consumed from the Rio Grande is unsustainable, contributing to the depletion of reservoirs and aquifers.

This situation has led to significant agricultural impacts in Texas, including the closure of the state's last sugar processing mill. Trump's threat follows a $12 billion economic assistance package unveiled for farmers affected by trade wars, with $11 billion directed towards the Farmer Bridge Assistance program, expected to be released in February 2026.

The ongoing water dispute has previously caused political tensions, prompting bipartisan calls from US lawmakers to withhold funds from Mexico until it delivers the required water.