US Holiday Shopping Surges Despite Consumer Gloom

American consumers have demonstrated a surprising ability to spend during the holiday shopping season, contradicting their own pessimistic views on the economy. According to Breitbart News, recent surveys, including the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for November, revealed a significant decline in consumer confidence, with sentiment dropping to its lowest level since June 2022. The survey indicated that buying conditions for large durable goods, such as cars and appliances, have reached an all-time low. Despite these negative sentiments, shoppers flocked to stores and online retail platforms over the Thanksgiving weekend, with a record 203 million people participating in holiday shopping activities, surpassing last year's turnout of 197 million and exceeding the National Retail Federation's expectations by approximately 16 million shoppers.

In fact, during this five-day period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, a staggering 96 percent of shoppers made holiday-related purchases, averaging spending of $337.86 per person, up from $315.56 last year. This marks the highest average spending since 2019, with two-thirds of the expenditure directed towards gifts. Both in-store and online shopping saw increases, with physical stores attracting 129.5 million shoppers, a three percent rise from last year, and online shopping drawing 134.9 million, up nine percent. Black Friday remained the top shopping day, with 80.3 million shoppers in stores and 85.7 million online. Notably, shopping activity surged even on days typically associated with lower consumer engagement, such as the Saturday and Sunday following Thanksgiving.

The surge in vehicle sales also echoed this trend; vehicle sales rebounded in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.6 million units, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 1.8 percent, despite consumer sentiment indicating that buying conditions for large durables have never been worse. This disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual spending behavior raises questions about the reliability of sentiment surveys as predictors of economic activity. As noted by Bank of America economists, the sentiment surveys show a marked deterioration in personal finance views, with affordability concerns prevalent among consumers, particularly those with lower incomes.

The National Retail Federation projects that holiday spending will exceed $1 trillion for the first time, anticipating growth between 3.7 and 4.2 percent over the 2024 holiday season. This holiday shopping boom occurs despite widespread concerns about high prices and economic uncertainty, suggesting that while sentiment surveys capture emotional responses influenced by various factors, they may not accurately reflect consumer behavior and spending patterns. As observed by Breitbart News, Americans may express worries about the economy, yet they continue to spend, indicating resilience in consumer spending that could significantly influence economic forecasts moving forward.