Bitcoin Market Sentiment: Analysts Debate Bull Run Status

As Bitcoin's price fluctuates, analysts are deeply divided on whether the current market conditions indicate the end of the bull run or the beginning of a new phase. Yesterday, Bitcoin's price dipped below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June, prompting discussions among analysts regarding the four-year market cycles typically associated with Bitcoin.

Some analysts suggest that this could signal the peak of the latest bull market, while others argue that this time could be different. Samson Mow, a notable figure in the crypto community, tweeted about the potential for Bitcoin to surge upwards for the next year, countering bearish sentiments.

However, Galaxy's Head of Firmwide Research, Alex Thorn, has revised his Bitcoin price expectations for the end of the year from $185,000 to $120,000, reflecting a more cautious outlook. This adjustment aligns with the view that future market cycles may be more moderate and less volatile.

Historically, past bull markets have been characterized by extreme retail exuberance followed by significant downturns, as seen with the collapse of FTX following the 2021 bull market. This time, analysts are also considering recent liquidation events, with the largest in history occurring on October 10, 2025, where over $20 billion in positions were liquidated, contributing to a climate of fear among traders.

Amid these uncertainties, Sequans, a Bitcoin treasury company, has reportedly sold part of its Bitcoin holdings to fund stock buybacks, marking a significant move in the market. The dynamics of supply and demand are also changing, with increased institutional investments leading to liquidity unlike anything seen in previous cycles.

According to Bitwise's CIO Matt Hougan, the trend of institutional asset movement into Bitcoin ETFs has only just begun. Many believe that the impact of halving events on Bitcoin's price may be diminishing over time, further complicating traditional market cycle narratives.

Currently, Bitcoin's market dominance remains high at 73.7%, suggesting that an 'altseason'—where smaller cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin—has yet to materialize. On the options market, there is growing caution among traders, with significant open interest in put options at the $80,000 strike, indicating expectations of a potential price slide.

Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange, reports that the notional open interest remains elevated above $40 billion, with traders hedging against further declines. Bitcoin's price has dropped over 18% since reaching a record high of more than $126,000, influenced by macroeconomic pressures and recent comments from the Federal Reserve.

Analysts at QCP Capital noted that the outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has reversed a strong trend from earlier this year, contributing to the downward pressure on prices. As market sentiment remains volatile, the debate over the status of Bitcoin's bull run continues, leaving investors and traders navigating a complex financial landscape.